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Analysis for future global demand for steel and import & export trade

最后编辑:2012-06-05  浏览:960 次  【字体:  
After the financial crisis, global iron and steel industry became recover slowly, It is reported that global demand for steel will rise 13.7% in 2010,rise 5.8% in 2011,rise 4.6% in 2012.In the next few years, some new situation and changes for global economy will affect the global iron and steel industry’s development and downstream steel demand, at the same time, one important uncertain factor is existing in the world economy’s development , It is that the loose monetary policy taken by different countries stimulate economy’s growth, will this influence continue all the time ?
Estimate for the development of world steel industry between 2009 and 2012
In 2009 except China, other countries in the world reduced the stock for steel, It was finished even at the middle of 2009 , superficially, China’s steel consumption amount rose more than 20%.Till the end of 2009,except China, the other countries’ stock for steel had dropped to a very low level ,In 2009, Except the low- cost for iron and steel companies in China, Russia, India and Brazil got some profit, a lot of steel companies got no profit. World crude steel’s production drawdown 7.3% to 1.23 billion tons.
In 2010, except China, other countries’ steel stock recovered to be increased, the request for steel was risen again, Till May of 2010,the trading volume and price rose much, after this, price for steel began to drawdown slowly .In 2010 China’s economy was still growing strongly, At the same time, price and request for steel rose at that time, but from the second half of 2010 China’s relevant government went on taking the tight money policy in real estate industry, steel request in China went to a stable stage. Steel users in the other countries except China kept a good attitude towards the economy prospect, they increased the financing and the steel stock. It was estimated that the global production volume of crude steel will increase about 17.2% in 2010, reached the record of 1.44 billion.
The year 2011 was a year that the request for steel was kept increasing in the other parts or the world except China, It reflected that the world economy was risen again overall, oppositely, China’s fixed assets investments dropped down, it lead to a slow speed for the increasing request of steel, To see from the other parts of the world  , steel consumption intensive capital expenditures and construction department also began to bounce, crude steel’s production will increase 5.4%,up to 1.52 billion tons in 2011.
In 2012 China's fixed asset investment speed is predicated to continue increasing slow down, China’s economy speed will also slow down, But the other developing countries’ economy will keep a increasing speed, from 2012 developed countries’ economy go on keep a recover situation ,,To see from the whole world ,economy will go on to keep a certain increasing speed. Production volume for crude steel will still increase 4.7% in 2012,up to 1.59 billion.
Because the credit supply reduced, people’s confidence for the market dropped and profit prospect was poor in 2009, Long time invested building industry department and mechanical equipment manufacturer market got a serious disadvantage influence. To see from the steel request area , steel request for durable consumer goods’ market is 40%,so the market said above will usually recovery lags to the economy’s recovery. So, the other places’ steel request except China will recovery rapidly only after 2010 in the world.
Calculated according to theory of purchasing-power parity, half of the GDP of the world come from China, It is very good for the steel request’s development, Developing countries’ fixed assets investment rate is high, (It is the percentage for fixed assets investment in the GDP),Steel request is also large, these developing countries’ national saving rate is high, Fixed assets investment rate is high, compared with developed countries, their donation for the world GDP is bigger ,then their donation for the world increase of steel request is even bigger.